Tracking and Monitoring Outmigration

Emigration is a very difficult demographic event to measure. Various data sources and methods can be used to estimate the number of emigrants :-

• The main Canadian sources are the residual method, the Reverse Record Check, tax data and the Demographic Estimates Program;
• In addition, the American Community Survey and the Department of Homeland Security provide a measure of emigration to the United States;
• These sources display very different advantages and limitations in regards to measuring emigration

The number of emigrants fluctuates greatly depending on the source examined :-

• The number of emigrants based on the Reverse Record Check goes from 450,000 to 600,000 depending on the census period;
• The residual method provides a somewhat lower number, about 450,000 emigrants for each of the three periods;
• The Demographic Estimates Program estimates provide a measure hovering around 450,000 emigrants;
• Tax data provide a considerably lower number of emigrants than that of the other sources. This number is estimated at around 150,000 emigrants.

Basic demographic characteristics also change depending on the source examined :-

• The Reverse Record Check permanent emigration estimates is higher than those of the Demographic Estimates Program and tax data;
• Distributions by age, province of departure and sex are relatively similar. The main exception is for the residual method. That method provides negative numbers for some age groups and for Alberta;
• The American Community Survey provides a considerably higher number of emigrants to the United States than those of the other sources. The Department of Homeland Security and tax data provide the lowest numbers of emigrants.
• According to the Demographic Estimates Program error of closure criterion, the estimated number of emigrants from the Reverse Record Check would be the most appropriate to measure that demographic event.

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